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S&P 500 analysis and forecast after the "AI bubble" panic
S&P 500 forecast after the AI bubble panic: Why Friday's selloff is not yet a major bearish reversalFriday's selloff in AI and chip stocks looked alarming, but the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) are telling a somewhat less frightening story. Following the October 16 close, my four-hour technical analysis still shows a dec
investingLive Americas market news wrap: Nasdaq sinks and oil jumps
BOJ’s Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2%US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expectedUS September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expectedUS fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five yearsMarkets:Gold down $2 to $4168US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 5.09%S
Oil prices surge higher into the weekend
It will be another weekend of pain at the fuel pumps.WTI crude oil is finishing the week at the highest since September 21 and back over $100 per barrel. WTI last trade up $3.33 to $101.30. Brent crude also touched $110 for the first time since May.The strong rally to $101 from $98 in the final hours of trading today s
US fiscal 2026 budget deficit was the largest in five years
September 2025 was a $198B surplusOutlays $585B vs $346B a year agoReceipts $558B vs $544B a year agoFY2026 deficit $1.992 trillion vs $1.775T in FY2025, the largest in five yearsFY2026 gross interest on the debt: record $1.36T, up $144B (12%)Interest is now the main driver of the deficit. The $144B rise in interest co
AI names fall as the Nasdaq comes under fresh pressure
The pressure is back on tech stocks today, led by CoreWeave once again.The market continues to smell a rat in the neocloud space and it's being joined by some of the cybersecurity names and other AI winners. CoreWeave is at the center of the selloff, with its unsecured bonds yielding about 15%. Late yesterday, sentimen
European stocks finish higher, posting weekly gains as U.S. technology shares struggle
As London and European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing higher across the board. The gains also cap a positive trading week for all five major indices, offering a contrast to the selling in the broader U.S. stock indices.The UK’s FTSE 100 led the weekly advance with a gain of 3.13%. Germa
The broader US stock indices are lower but showing different degrees of technical bias
The major US stock indices are moving lower today as inflation concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. Technology shares are leading the declines:Nasdaq Composite: down 1.15%.Nasdaq 100: down 1.30%.S&P 500: down 0.42%.But the declines do not tell the whole story. From a technical perspective, each index has a differen
Flying car. Grounded stock. The technicals are not leaning to a "take-off" for Tesla stock
The flying car gets attention. But is it good for business?Tesla’s flying car has certainly brought out the “oohs” and “aahs.” And why not? A car that can briefly take flight is going to get attention. From a marketing perspective, that is a win for Tesla. It gets people talking and gives Elon Musk another opportunity
Earnings week ahead: Banks were upbeat on the economy, now onto tech
The big banks set the tone this week: consumers are still spending, businesses are borrowing again, and credit isn’t getting worse. That’s good for growth, but it isn’t the demand destruction the Fed may need. September CPI came in at 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, both above forecast, and futures now price October no-ch
Bitcoin is little changed on the day, and pushing against a key crossroad. What next?
Bitcoin has spent the early part of the week moving back and forth across its 100- and 200-hour moving averages (they are near converged near $82,500). Each modest break above offered an opportunity for the buyers to take control. However, sellers prevailed. The price moved away from those moving averages and lower, bu
US September industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4% expected
Prior was 0.0% (revised to +0.1%)Capacity utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% expManufacturing output +0.3% vs +0.3% expPrior manufacturing output -0.3% (revised to -0.2%)Mining +0.2%Utilities +3.5%Machinery +1.4%, primary metals +1.6%, electrical equipment +1.3%, chemicals +1.0%.The headline is flattered by utilities. Electric
USDCAD is lower on the day, but getting a modest lift after another higher inflation reading
The USDCAD has seen plenty of up-and-down price action this week, but one message has been consistent: buyers have struggled to sustain momentum near the highs for the year.The highs from October 5 and October 9 established a ceiling near 1.4292–1.4298. Monday’s high fell short at 1.4286. On Wednesday, the stronger-tha
US September import price index +1.1% vs +0.8% expected
Prior was +0.7% m/m (revised to +0.5%)Export prices +2.2% vs +1.0% expectedPrior export prices were +0.6% (revised to +1.2%)Import prices y/y 8.1% vs +7.0% priorIt's been an ugly week for inflation data. The market seems to think the Fed can tame it by waiting until December but that's some serious imported inflation t
Morning Kickstart: Dollar falls despite hot inflation. USDJPY slips below key moving averages
The US dollar continues its move to the downside today despite the hotter US CPI and PPI reports this week. Treasury yields are also higher this morning, but the greenback is struggling to attract buyers.In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technic
BOJ’s Ueda: We will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches 2%
Want to gauge neutral rate estimate taking into account accumulative impact of past rate hikes on financial conditions, domestic pricesHard to say anything clear about Japan’s neutral rate of interestTakeaway from this week’s meetings was to exchange views with other policymakers on how Middle East conflict and AI dema
How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 39 bps (87% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 115 bpsBoE: 38 bps (93% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)2027: 105 bpsFed: 25 bps (85% probability of no change at the next meeting)2027: 75 bpsECB: 25 bps (90% probability of no change at the next meeting)2027: 69 bp
investingLive European session wrap: Dollar slips as stocks steady and yields edge a little higher
Headlines:Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concernsHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still aheadEurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelimMarket
Ethereum rebounds as dip-buyers pile in around key technical levels. Fundamental improvement or just a dead-cat bounce?
Ethereum extended the losses yesterday following a hot US PPI report but eventually rebounded strongly as dip-buyers stepped in around key technical levels. The macro and geopolitical pictures haven’t improved at all, so the rebound looks to be driven more by overstretched positioning. This could limit the upside unles
Is EUR/USD finally turning the corner or is this just another false dawn?
The past few weeks have been rather painful for EUR/USD buyers but it seems like things are finally taking a turn for the better. Ironically, this is all coming after hotter-than-expected US inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports this week. Yet, that is helping to give EUR/USD a lift as it pushes to 1.1260 today -
Crude oil remains supported amid Saudi-Houthi conflict and stalled US-Iran negotiations. What's next?
Crude oil extended the gains yesterday into new highs as the lack of positive developments in the Middle East continues to support oil prices. The US-Iran negotiations have stalled over the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US insists that Iran needs to address the nuclear programme first, while Tehran
Solana's fundamentals are clouded by negative macro and geopolitical conditions. What's next?
Solana has been under pressure in the past couple of weeks alongside the broader crypto market as deteriorating macro conditions and rising oil prices weighed on risk sentiment. On the fundamental side, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade could be a key catalyst. Scheduled for October 21, the consensus upgrade aims to reduc
Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelim
Eurozone September final CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y prelimPrior +3.2%Eurozone September final core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%There are no changes to the preliminary estimates, with euro area headline inflation confirmed to have surged to 3.8% in September. That marks a notable acceleration from the 3.2% estim
Chart of the day: 10-year Treasury yields hit reverse this week but the real test is still ahead
Seeing as to how the bond market is faring to end the week, you probably wouldn't have guessed that we actually got hotter-than-expected inflation data from both the US CPI and PPI reports in the past few days. In fact, you might even think it was the opposite. Yet, here we are.10-year Treasury yields are down to 5.09%
Gold shrugs off hot inflation data as market focus may be shifting to growth concerns
Yesterday, US PPI came in much higher than expected, but gold's reaction was similar to what we saw after the US CPI release, that is the price initially spiked lower before recovering and rallying to new highs. Treasury yields also fell following the data, pointing to either overstretched positioning or growing concer
Dow Jones futures analysis: Fed risks and key levels for October 16
Dow Jones futures recover, but can bulls overcome 52,612 amid Fed and inflation uncertainty?Dow Jones futures are showing a more constructive technical picture on Friday, October 16, but the economic backdrop remains complicated. Federal Reserve uncertainty, persistent inflation, concerns about AI financing and changin
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